How is Lake Simcoe’s health, and what are our governments doing about it?
Numbers of factors contribute to lake health, including adequate forest and wetland cover, manageable phosphorus loads, controlling invasive species, and a healthy climate. Some of these are easier to manage than others.
In this update we provide our readers with high level observations about many factors affecting the lake, and we demonstrate where scientific advice on phosphorus loads and lake management differs from the province’s machinations.
Forest cover has been stable, with opinions differing about whether it has increased or not, since 2018. (LSRCA says it has improved; Lake Simcoe Science Committee says it has not.) But around Lake Simcoe land is so expensive that it’s hard to add parks and protected areas. The government of Ontario is loath to use policy (like the Greenbelt and Oak Ridges Moraine) to better protect land, so we should expect nothing significant on that front in the near future.
Climate change, while a massive threat to planetary health, is even harder to manage when the government suppresses information about it. The provincial government is essentially presenting as climate deniers, which does not bode well for action.
Invasive species management in Ontario was reviewed in 2023, by then Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk, who said “Overall, our audit found the Natural Resources Ministry is not effectively managing and monitoring the introduction and spread of harmful invasive species in Ontario.” Ok, so no real reason for optimism there either.
However! It’s not all bad news.
We have reason to believe that Ontario is going to take some action on road salt this year. Read more here and take action to support the change!
Phosphorus
You have heard much crowing about the Federal and provincial commitments to building a phosphorus recycling plant on the Holland River. This IS in fact a great piece of news, and we applaud those who are trying to make this happen, fast. We should have a plan, a location, and a host for this water treatment facility within six months: Minister Khanjin’s orders! You may recall that the Federal government announced its intention to spend $16 million on this in 2020. Why it has taken four years to light a fire is a question perhaps best asked of Wayne Emmerson, who has recently stepped down as Chair of the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA), after he tried unsuccessfully to tie the ability to pay for this plant to the approval of the Upper York Sewage System, (UYSS), while wearing his Chair of York Region hat. (An excellent example of the inherent conflict of interest faced by elected officials pushing for development while sitting on the Board of the LSRCA.)
This plant is anticipated to stop 2.5 tonnes of phosphorus / year from entering the lake. The most recent 10 year average phosphorus load average is 97.5 tonnes / year and the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan’s (LSPP) target is 44 tonnes / year. You will observe that 2.5 of 97.5 is just 2.5% of the total load. So in fact this will be a minor, while needed, improvement.
Our other ray of sunshine is to remind you that Georgina Island First Nation and EcoJustice, with ours and others support, made sure the Upper York Sewage Solution was not approved to add treated sewage to the lake. This will slow down sprawl there, hopefully until such a time that municipalities and the province listen to reason and stop the perpetuation of this damaging form of housing development, and instead focus on building a greater share of more compact and affordable homes in more compact towns and cities.
Recently the LSRCA released the latest phosphorus load numbers, shown below:
Source: https://lsrca.on.ca/index.php/watershed-health/phosphorus/
If you compare the two most recent decades, phosphorus loads are increasing. And yet, the Ontario government spins the information to claim otherwise, such as: “Routine monitoring and research indicate that substantial progress has been made to improve water quality in Lake Simcoe as a result of the investments made in Lake Simcoe. While phosphorus loadings fluctuate, phosphorus concentrations continue to decline.” “Fluctuate” is true, but so too is “an overall increase”.
Dissolved oxygen (DO) levels are another target of the LSPP, and they are typically tied to phosphorus loads and concentrations. We are concerned that the positive improvements in DO are being overly attributed to management actions. What is not made clear at provincial news conferences is that invasive species are thought to be responsible for the improvements in phosphorus concentrations and DO. Not quite the same as “as a result of the investments.” Point is, the investments are great, but controlling pollution is essential, and is not being adequately managed.
What did the independent members of the Lake Simcoe Science Committee say?
In their 2021 advice to the Minister of Environment, Conservation and Parks, scientists noted a number of cautions:
“While Dissolved Oxygen (DO) levels have increased and are now closer to the 7 mg/L target…the recent improvements…should not be considered permanent or stable.”
“Despite improvements in DO levels, the cold-water fish community is not restored or recovered. Lake trout have been showing some decline in abundance and recruitment.”
“Small blooms of harmful (i.e., toxic) cyanobacteria have been reported in Lake Simcoe recently, which, if they were to increase could threaten drinking water supplies and recreational opportunities… Expansion of urban development in the watershed also increases the risk of harmful blooms through higher Total Phosphorus (TP) loads. While little can be done to alter climate at the watershed level, the additional stress from increased TP loading can be avoided.”
“Invasive species represent a significant threat to both aquatic and terrestrial habitats. Policies should be strengthened to detect and eradicate invasive species before and as they become establish[ed]”
“…future urban developments could impair the progress made to date and ability to further protect the lake from low dissolved oxygen, loss of cold-water fish populations and harmful cyanobacteria blooms”.
These sobering comments are very much in line with the presentation of facts made by the Rescue Lake Simcoe Coalition, and we thank those members for noting their well-informed concerns. We expect these to be the last robust recommendations made by the Lake Simcoe Science Committee as it is now headed by development lawyer Marvin Geist, not a scientist. The scientists whose tenures began before the Ford administration’s appointments expire in March of this year.
What is being said about the 44 tonne phosphorus load target?
There is some debate at local Councils, and apparently at the province and the LSRCA, about whether the LSPP’s 44 tonne / year phosphorus target is worth keeping. Those who want to ditch it say it’s not achievable, with some ominously claiming that the target “is going to change”, a charge the Province has yet to deny. All players agree that interim targets and an updated Phosphorus Reduction Strategy or plan are needed.
For the Rescue Lake Simcoe Coalition’s part, we do not support changing the phosphorus target. There has been no thorough analysis of the achievement of the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan’s targets and objectives that must justify such a significant change. We strongly oppose making it easier to pollute Lake Simcoe in the absence of any measurable or sustainable improvements in any of the indicators of lake health. There is no independent science that says we can achieve the targeted dissolved oxygen levels, sustainably, with higher phosphorus inputs. We will wait for that.
The image below is from the Lake Simcoe Phosphorus Reduction Strategy, 2011. We are in the adaptive management phase but no revised plan has been developed.
Read Ontario’s Lake Simcoe Phosphorus Reduction Strategy here https://www.ontario.ca/page/lake-simcoe-phosphorus-reduction-strategy
Conclusion
At Lake Simcoe we have a shot at protecting our waters, with strong legislation and almost adequate natural cover. (See the LSRCA’s watershed report card, 2023, for local details.)
But the Lake Simcoe Science Committee members’ comments make clear that the Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks needs to roll up its sleeves and get to work on an updated Phosphorus Reduction Strategy. We need a plan to control existing sources of phosphorus from urban and suburban stormwater, farms, and those outdated sewage systems, without opening up Pandora’s Box and allowing an unsustainable amount of sprawl in the watershed.
Help us do this important work!
We appreciate media interest in Lake Simcoe, and stories like these from the National Observer:
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/11/10/news/ontario-plunges-13-million-lake-simcoe-cleanup